AVIC Sunda (000043) Important Matters: Restructuring and pricing sincerely take shape of non-residential property management leading
The reorganization pricing is full of sincerity, and the agency leaders and commercial giants have joined forces to jointly create a non-residential property management leader.
The price of 60 yuan / share issuance of shares to purchase China Merchants Shekou, Shenzhen China Merchants Real Estate held a total of 100% equity of China Merchants Property, the transaction price is about 29.
9 trillion; which promises a CAGR of 12-16% for the 19-22 year performance. Considering the expansion of the scale stability of China Merchants Property and the deterministic improvement of the net interest rate under the reform of physical efficiency, it is expected that the performance will be completed in excess of the probability; the purchase price corresponds18PE and 19PE are 20 times and 19 times respectively (if the 20-year performance growth rate is 30%, then 15 times), the market value of the property management after the merger corresponds to only 26 times of 19PE, and the pricing is sincere.
After the completion of the transaction, 3 new shares will be added.
9.3 billion shares, with a total share capital of 10.
6 billion shares, the shareholding ratio of China Merchants rose to 51.
2%, becoming a controlling shareholder, the proportion of shares held by AVIC is 13.
0%, as the second shareholder, the proportion of Poly shares will reach 4.
5% is the third shareholder.
AVIC Sunda’s deep-cultivating property management system is rich in property investment services (70.82 million square meters of management area, residential and non-residential areas respectively).
9%), and has a large number of commercial properties with China Merchants Department, AVIC Sunda and China Merchants Properties have joined forces to build a leading non-residential property management leader.
The combined performance is expected to increase in quantity and quality, and the property management performance in 19 is expected to exceed 4.
200 million, previously exceeding + 36% At present, the management area of AVIC Real Estate and China Merchants Property are 76.34 million square meters and 70.82 million square meters, respectively, which is +43 compared to the end of 18 years.
After the merger, the tube area reached 1.
4.7 billion cubic meters, becoming a leader in non-residential property management.
It is expected that the resource support of the subsequent investment promotion department and the expansion capability of the merger of AVIC Property itself will lead to a steady increase in the management scale of the company after the merger.
At the same time, considering that the net interest rate of AVIC Properties and China Merchants Property in 2018 was only 4.
4% and 5.
0%, the previous top 100 average 8% continued to expand the improvement space, the introduction of China Merchants Group to actively promote the reform of China Merchants Property, clearly shifted from “cost center” to “profit center”, subsequent gross margin improvement and expense ratio improvement will promote net interest rate repair.
Therefore, the combined results are expected to increase in volume and price.
Among them, 19H1, AVIC property net profit1.
3.0 billion, previously +35.
9%, with a net margin of 5.
2%, ten years +0.
6pct, expected 19-year performance is expected to exceed 2.
3.4 billion, previously over + 43%.
In 19Q1, the net profit of China Merchants Property was zero.
4.1 billion, with a net interest rate of 5.
6%, +1 from earlier 18 years.
0pct, it is expected that the 19-year performance is expected to reach 1.
8.7 billion, the total property management results of AVIC Property and China Merchants Property is expected to reach 4.
2.1 billion, previously + 36%, and the possibility of exceeding expectations.
After the expansion, the market value is 138 trillion. It is expected to be reasonably estimated to exceed 194 billion U.S. dollars in 20 years. The growth space is expected to exceed 40%. Refer to the 杭州桑拿网 comparable leading property company 20PE 20-30 times. Among them, the leading Country Garden service 20PE is 30 times.The scarcity of leading property management companies in A shares and the scarcity of commercial property management companies in AH shares. The company deserves a premium on revenue. We estimate a 30-fold increase in 20PE based on the target, and estimate the combined property management performance based on the above.
2.1 billion, and produced 20 years of property management performance of about 5 at 30% growth rate.
4.7 billion, the combined portion of the AVIC Sunda property is estimated to be approximately 164.
200 million; At the end of 19H1, the total net assets of real estate and other businesses were 41.
900 million, following 0.
7 times PB discount, a reasonable market value of 29.
After the combination of the two, AVIC Sunda 天津夜网 reasonably estimated 193.
The company’s total share capital after the company’s expansion is 10.
6 billion shares, based on the closing price of 12 on August 23.
99 yuan / share, the market value after the expansion of about 137.
As a result, a reasonable estimate of 193 was compared.
500 million, and considering its dual scarcity, the company currently expects to still exceed 40% growth space.
Investment suggestion: reorganization pricing is sincere, the leading non-residential property management pipe is formed, and the rating combination of “strong push” is re-established. After the merger, the area under management will reach 1.
4.7 billion cubic meters, is expected to become a leader in non-residential property management, and increase the background of China Merchants Group, and gradually expand the scale to provide sustainable protection.
The promotion of China Merchants Property’s positioning will gradually shift from “cost center” to “profit center”. At the same time, it will follow up or through organizational reform to improve per capita performance, promote the promotion of profitability, and achieve quantitative and qualitative improvements.
We estimate that the combined property management performance in 19 and 20 years will be 4 in total.
2 billion, 5.
500 million, the company’s current market value after the expansion of 13.8 billion US dollars, excluding the property management business market size of 108 times, corresponding to 19PE is 26 times, considering the company’s double scarcity, according to the 20-year target PE of 30 times, raise the target price to 18.
25 yuan, “strong push” level again.
Risk reminder: Property management is developing less than expected and profit margins are rising less than expected.